IN some encouraging economic news amid all the reports of the world economic crisis, a national forecasting agency says Tasmania can still avoid moving into recession.

In its latest Business Outlook report, Access Economics has found that Tasmania stands to be the major beneficiary from the Federal Government stimulus packages and may avoid successive quarters of negative growth.

The Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (TCCI) chief economist Richard Dowling says Tasmania is one of the few places in the world to so far escape recession.

Mr Dowling welcomed the Access Economics assessment and said it was encouraging for Tasmania.

“If we can continue to build resilience and restore business confidence there is every chance that a painful domestic economic contraction can be avoided.

“However, this requires a serious commitment from both the State Government and the business community to do whatever it takes,” Mr Dowling said.

Mr Dowling said that it was clear that Tasmania was benefiting from the Rudd Government’s economic stimulus policies.

“With lower house prices the first home owner’s grant provides a bigger bang for the buck in Tasmania  so it naturally has higher take-up rates.

“Tasmanian families also have lower debt levels and are more likely to spend the $900 cash payments,” Mr Dowling said.

He said that while it was pleasing that Tasmania was benefitting from the stimulus, this was mainly a consequence that Tasmanians generally earned less and were more welfare dependant.

“Having more low income earners who qualify for cash payments is not necessarily a thing to be celebrating.

“The long term challenge for Tasmania is to become more economically sustainable and self-reliant,” Mr Dowling said.

Despite the relatively upbeat economic assessment the Access report still predicts that Tasmanian unemployment will reach 9.1 percent in 2010-11.

“It appears somewhat contradictory for the report to be suggesting a recession could be avoided whilst predicting that the unemployment rate will double.

“Access Economics does not have a great forecasting record, so Tasmanians would be well-advised do everything possible to prove them wrong once again regarding the predicted unemployment level,” Mr Dowling said.