By ANDREW SCOBIE*

WITH the latest polls pointing to the prospect of neither major party winning a majority of seats at the forthcoming State Election due in March next year, the issue of political stability is paramount.

Undoubtedly, the parties will campaign to win majority government, but history shows that majority government does not necessarily guarantee stable government.  And stable government is what business, and I suggest, the community is demanding.

Just seven months out from the election, the latest EMRS poll shows the Liberal Party now attracting 33 percent of the popular vote statewide, followed by Labor with 26 percent and the Greens 17 percent. Some 22 percent of electors remain undecided and even if these votes are distributed among the parties based on the above percentages, no party would command a majority.

At the end of August, the TCCI staged the first in its series of great debates where the three party leaders, the Premier David Bartlett, Liberal Opposition Leader Will Hodgman and the Greens’ Leader Nick McKim presented their parties’ positions on budget and economic sustainability. This was the first in a series of debates leading up to March next year, with the next one to cover the key issue of stable government, with others to follow on planning reform, energy and climate change.

These are all key planks of the TCCI’s election checklist and the business community, with all Tasmanians, wants to know where the three parties stand on these fundamental issues. Our debate series will help focus our politicians and the electorate on these matters.

We want to know how the parties plan to manage the Tasmanian economy, how they will manage budget sustainability, grow our economy, deal with the demographic time-bomb that has been well documented and how they will meet the challenges of reforming our planning system. But perhaps most important of all, in the current political climate, how will they provide Tasmania with stable and effective government.

Stable government is a precursor to all government policy development and implementation. If you don’t have stable government, you can’t achieve good policy and economic outcomes.

Instability will impact on Tasmania’s attractiveness as an investment destination and other important measures such as how the ratings agencies determine the State’s credit rating. And the consequences of instability are long lasting.

While an unstable government may only last a few months, or perhaps years, again, history demonstrates that the impact, in the form of falling business investment, consequential economic stagnation, reduced community confidence and lower self esteem, stay with the State for many years following the demise of that government.

The next six months are crucial for our politicians and for Tasmania.

Our political leaders may beat their collective breasts about the need for majority government and how each of them may be best placed to provide that.

But above all we need stable government and as well as outlining their policies on the other key issues, it is incumbent on Messrs Bartlett, Hodgman and McKim to demonstrate to the Tasmanian electorate how they can guarantee this.

Rest assured that the TCCI and the business community will be watching closely and will not hesitate to comment on these matters as the election approaches.

*Andrew Scobie is TCCI’s managing director